What Really Matters

Have the Smart Betas become crowded trades?  How can we tell? What did we look at? We evaluated six “smart beta” alternatives to a US Large/Mid Cap Cap-weighted index exposure. These were 1) Equal Weighted, 2) Minimum Volatility, 3) Quality, 4) Value, 5) Momentum and 6) High Dividend

Where are the ETF investment opportunities? The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued assets results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued assets results in negative valuation returns. Panic selling

Where are the asset class investment opportunities? The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued assets results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued assets results in negative valuation returns. Panic

Where are the ETF investment opportunities? The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued assets results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued assets results in negative valuation returns. The recent pa

Where are the asset class investment opportunities? The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued assets results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued assets results in negative valuation returns. The r

  Where are the ETF investment opportunities? The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued assets results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued assets results in negative valuation returns. Reflecting

Where are the asset class investment opportunities? The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued assets results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued assets results in negative valuation returns. Refle

Where are the ETF investment opportunities? The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued assets results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued assets results in negative valuation returns. A number of m

Where are the asset class investment opportunities? The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued assets results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued assets results in negative valuation returns. A num

Where are the ETF investment opportunities? The Effect of Valuation on Expected Returns The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued ETFs results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued ETFs results in n

Where are the asset class investment opportunities? The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued assets results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued assets results in negative valuation returns. Best

Summary – Where does an investor want to be? So where are the investment opportunities? At The Headlands Group, this means “What are the undervalued markets and asset classes?” When markets and asset classes are priced below value, they offer investors the best potential future return

Where are the ETF investment opportunities? The Effect of Valuation on Expected Returns The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued ETFs results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued ETFs results in n

Where are the asset class investment opportunities? The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued assets results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued assets results in negative valuation returns. Non-U

Where are the ETF investment opportunities? The Effect of Valuation on Expected Returns The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued ETFs results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued ETFs results in n

Where are the asset class investment opportunities? The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued assets results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued assets results in negative valuation returns. Non-U

It would be a mistake for investors to underestimate the influence of the Fed on Treasury yields. Investors should expect that when the Fed steps out, market forces will take yields to levels more consistent with economic conditions. The chart above illustrates the three distinct peri

Where are the ETF investment opportunities? The Effect of Valuation on Expected Returns The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued ETFs results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued ETFs results in n

Where are the asset class investment opportunities? The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued assets results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued assets results in negative valuation returns. Non-U

Where are the ETF investment opportunities? The Effect of Valuation on Expected Returns The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued ETFs results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued ETFs results in n

Where are the asset class investment opportunities? The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued assets results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued assets results in negative valuation returns. Non-U

Following the 2008 market decline, investors have been all too eager to replace equity exposure in their portfolios with non-equity exposure. Having lived through losing 50% of their equity values twice in a ten year period, many have decided that they have too much equity exposure in

Where are the ETF investment opportunities? The Effect of Valuation on Expected Returns The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued ETFs results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued ETFs results in n

Where are the asset class investment opportunities? The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued assets results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued assets results in negative valuation returns. Non-U

So where are the investment opportunities early in 2014? For us at The Headlands Group, this means “What are the undervalued markets and asset classes?”  When markets and asset classes are priced below value, they offer investors the best potential future return.  Among equity markets

Where are the ETF investment opportunities? The Effect of Valuation on Expected Returns The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued ETFs results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued ETFs results in n

Where are the asset class investment opportunities? The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued assets results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued assets results in negative valuation returns. Non-U

Where are the ETF investment opportunities? The Effect of Valuation on Expected Returns The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued ETFs results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued ETFs results in n

Where are the asset class investment opportunities? The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued assets results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued assets results in negative valuation returns. Non-U

Valuation Comments 1-6-14 Among the major developed equity markets, US equities are the most overvalued while most European and Asian markets remain undervalued. It is important to remember, however, that equities are financial assets, claims on future earnings potential. In addition

Where are the asset class investment opportunities? The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued assets results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued assets results in negative valuation returns. Non-U

Where are the ETF investment opportunities? The Effect of Valuation on Expected Returns The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued ETFs results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued ETFs results in n

Overvalued US equities continue to get more overvalued.  The success of the recent Twitter IPO reminds us that high prices and overvaluation to investors means lower cost of capital for issuers.  Over the past few years in bond markets, returning investor risk appetite pushed prices h

Where are the ETF investment opportunities? The Effect of Valuation on Expected Returns The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued ETFs results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued ETFs results in n

Where are the asset class investment opportunities? The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued assets results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued assets results in negative valuation returns. Non-U

Where are the asset class investment opportunities? The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued assets results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued assets results in negative valuation returns. Non-U

Where are the ETF investment opportunities? The Effect of Valuation on Expected Returns The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued ETFs results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued ETFs results in n

A cautionary note about valuations in the current market environment.  Conditions are in place today for overvalued US equities to get more overvalued.  Persistently low long term interest rates and a “highly accommodative” monetary policy encourage investors to pay more for every dol

Where are the asset class investment opportunities? The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued assets results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued assets results in negative valuation returns. Non-U

Where are the ETF investment opportunities? The Effect of Valuation on Expected Returns The chart illustrates the effect of current valuation on expected return over the next five years. Buying undervalued ETFs results in positive valuation returns. Buying overvalued ETFs results in n